The
political atmosphere in Kano is heated and all observers are waiting anxiously
to see how the coming 2015 elections unfold. Two parties are competing for all
the political positions. The APC and PDP are the two major parties that every
observer takes seriously even though one cannot dismiss the chances of other
smaller and little or unknown parties. This article examines how Kwankwaso
factor will affect the outcome of the 2015 elections in Kano.
The
APC is confident that it will win the elections with an overwhelming majority
because of a number of factors which include the progress they brought to Kano
is self evident to grant them people’s vote and of course the Buhari factor.
The PDP is also confident that it will win because of a number of factors which
include manipulation of people’s emotions and the belief that Shekarau is still
that Saint-politician of 2003 with huge support from masses (and that will be
their Buhari-factor.)
Kano
people will vote for presidential, gubernatorial and national assembly
elections. The campaign for all the positions is intense, but the campaign for
Kano Central seems to be most amusing and controversial. For politicians
therefore, the most important and crucial seat in 2015 elections in the State is
that of Kano central. One wonders why every radio program on politics is
centred on Kano central senatorial seat. So the battle is that of supremacy
between those who are with Kwankwaso and those who are against him. This
problem will have serious implication for the chances of APC in Kano.
No
observer, participant or listener of radio programs in Kano can ignore the
desperation of Senator Bashir Lado of the PDP. Perhaps, no senatorial candidate
in the history of Kano politics has mounted a mammoth and ferocious media
campaign as Bashir Lado. Whether one likes it or not, he must hear Lado
campaigning using many unconventional strategies and methods like buying
groceries and meat for people, dashing moneys to women and paying hospital
bills and using the radio to amplify it. This guy goes to the extent of having
many programs to remain visible and relevant. Whether this will help him get
re-elected or not remains to be seen. But what surprises observers is why is the
man to beat showing reluctance in fighting for election to the Kano central
senatorial seat? Is he scared of Lado and have already giving off or what could
be the reason? Some are of the view that Kwankwaso is actually not scared of
Lado and that he must have a strategy which many do not understand. Some are of
the opinion that looking at his profile, he is just sure of himself and he assumes
Kano people know that he will be a better representative of Kano than Lado and
has decided to allow Kano people to chose for themselves. Time will tell.
Kwankwaso’s
credentials for the senate seat are excellent. No one can doubt that with
Kwankwaso as a senator, Kano will be well represented. First of all, Kwankwaso
is a seasoned and polished politician. He was a member of the University of
Nottingham (United Kingdom) senate representing students; he was a deputy
speaker in the national assembly of the third republic (derailed by General
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida). So he is conversant with the workings of the
parliament. He is exposed, articulate, bold and fearless. So, if he wins the
senate seat and APC wins at the Centre, he can be a great asset to the party,
if APC didn’t at the centre, he will still be a major force in the opposition.
In
addition, if Kwankwaso lost in the senate elections, and APC wins at the centre,
the party will lose a competent senator in the parliament. But, it is very likely
that the APC led government will certainly have to work with Kwankwaso in the
executive or somewhere else. So, for him, if APC wins at the centre, it is a
win, win situation for him.
Now,
why is Kwankwaso’s candidature facing so much opposition from within the party
and outside it? Why are politicians very bitter about this fine son of Kano? Even
though many observers and citizens of Kano State believed that Kwankwaso’s
Autocratic/task oriented leadership style is the best style for Kano of today, arguing
that he has delivered, many politicians see Kwankwaso as arrogant and
hot-headed man who doesn’t care about their interests and welfare.
For
true politicians, politics is all about self interest whatever it may be. To,
many politicians in Kano and many other people who benefit from politics of
‘abundance’ in the past, Kwankwaso’s style is too mean, miserly and
inconsiderate. They have serious grudges against him because unlike his
predecessor, he did not ‘build people’ and so is useless politically speaking.
One may ask, what can such politicians say about all the solid and visionary
projects that his government has done in Kano? Even if one is blind, he would
know that Kano has changed and it will certainly benefit from his educational
and youth capacity building programs. The answer is simple; politicians are not
after projects rather what they directly benefit from a government.
From
within the party too, the opposition against Kwankwaso from within is another
important factor that will decide the outcome of 2015 elections in Kano. From
available information in the public discourse sphere, when APC was being
formed, members from ANPP, ACN and CPC party were in the merger before PDP
members decamped to APC. However, the decision of the party to give leadership
position to a serving governor where one is available polarises other important
figures in the other parties.
People
like the former governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau could not imagined
being under the leadership of Kwankwaso, so in order to remain politically
relevant he, to the shock of many, decamped to the PDP, making him a politician
in the true sense of the word. In politics, self interest is always ahead of
collective interests.
Others
who remained in the Kano APC stayed because they belief in the party whatever
happens or whosoever leads it. Some stayed because they love General Buhari
while others yet have a hope of getting some positions to contest. When the
primaries for governorship and national assembly were held, most of those APC
members from the Legacy Party lost. Some, like General Lawal Jafaru Isa, (a
strategic general as he is) accepted defeat and go on with his political life. He
now gives all his attention to the National APC and to Buhari campaign in
particular. You hardly hear him in any controversy or making unguarded
utterances. This earned him more respect and admiration from many reasonable
and respectful people in Kano and in the polity.
Others,
who feel bitter and or betrayed, decided to form an internal open opposition
without leaving the party. Their sole goal is that of ensuring that Kwankwaso as
a person lose the election at any cost, including giving the PDP serious
advantage. So, this time is about the politics of vengeance. Between them,
there is a rising dust of dark cloud of internal opposition which is short of
being called an anti-party team. Their goal as they always claim is to ensure that
Kwankwaso fails and NOT to harm the party. The question is how can they do this
and what is the implication of this action to the outcome of the 2015 elections
in Kano?
This
internal opposition with the invisible helping hand of the opposition are busy
demonizing Kwankwaso and trying to convince the electorate not to vote for him
but still vote APC for other positions. This team is of the belief that they
can make Kwankwaso lose without affecting the party. They are of the opinion
that local electorate in Kano can differentiate between different ballot papers
and can vote for PDP or any other party in Kano central and APC in other
positions. Although this is a risky experiment that many see as an ill-informed
strategy for APC, the members of internal opposition feel it is a risk worth
taking.
Therefore,
the people of Kano central will have to decide whether to vote for APC as their
idol General Buhari said (SAK-at all levels), or help internal opposition and
bring down Kwankwaso. The greatest challenge and defining factor in the outcome
of 2015 elections in Kano central at least is how well or not so well the
Kwankwaso factor has played a role.
In
the end, as a citizen of Kano, I will not lose sleep whosoever wins Kano central
or Kano State for that matter even when I prefer one party over the other,
since my vote will not make that difference. Whoever Kano people finally voted
for, all of us will share the dividend or bear the consequences.
As
for politicians, after the elections, they will re-align themselves again.
Those that are fighting today will become allies tomorrow and those who are
friend might be the enemies of tomorrow. They are like that, they will never
change. It is therefore a big challenge before the well informed people of Kano
to responsibly educate their people to vote wisely. The choice we make is the
choice we will live with for the next four years and continue to bear its
consequences for God knows when. May God help us.
February 19, 2015
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